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September 18, 2017

#Copper #MiningStocks Due for Bounce Off First Level of Support $COP, $FCM $GLEN.L $FM.TO $HBM.TO

#Copper: Testing First Level of Support, but risks remain

-          Copper has pulled back nearly 8% from the 2017 highs and is now testing its first key level of support near the 50-day moving average and August consolidation zone.

-          The pullback resembles the December 2016 lows as price action hits the 50-dma as Full Stochastics reach extreme near-term oversold levels. 


Global Copper Miners ETF: Trading Opportunity Off the 50-MDA


-          The Global Copper Miners ETF (COPX) has pulled back to initial support at the 50-day moving average.

-          The recent weakness has pushed Full Stochastics  to oversold levels and reset daily RSI providing an opportunity to accumulate.  



Freeport-McMoRan: Testing Key Support

-          Freeport has pulled back to converging support at the 200-day moving average, August lows and neckline of the Feb-July rounded bottom.

-          Combined with sub-10 Full Stochastic readings, the recent pullback provides an attractive entry point.

Glencore: Dual Support

-          Glencore is retesting the breakout from the November to August trading range and rising 50-day moving average.

-          The September pullback has reset momentum from an oversold condition and offers an opportunity to accumulate.  


First Quantum Minerals: Bottom of Channel

-          Price action has pulled back 17$ from the September highs and is now at the bottom of the developing bullish channel.

-          Deeply oversold Full Stochastics combined with price testing support suggests adding to FM at current levels.  


HudBay Minerals: Oversold at 200-Day Moving Average 

-          Attractive entry point in HBM as price tests a key inflection level dating back to December 2016 and the rising 200-day moving average.

-          RSI, MACD and Full Stochastics reset and price action remains in an uptrend versus the TSX Composite.


Copper Commitment of Traders: Still Needs to Reset

-          While we see attractive trading opportunities in Copper stocks after their recent declines, there still remains some risk over the coming months from the positioning in the Commitment of Traders.  

-          Net speculative long positions in Copper have risen to the second largest net long position in history behind only the late 2016/early 2017 period. At the same time, commercial traders have opened up significant net short positions approaching the 2017 lows.  

-          The bearish COT setup suggests Copper is likely to experience a multi-month period of consolidation similar to the first half of 2017.  


September 10, 2017

#Gold - #ETF gold holding end of August 2017

The World @GoldCouncil published its #Gold #ETF holdings update


European funds have increased their AUM (asset under management) by 12% on the year, while Asian funds have lost 16% of their assets.


Gold-backed ETFs increase by 31.4t in August to 2,295t in global holdings


·        North American ETFs drove global inflows in August as investors added 27.8 tonnes ($1.3bn, 2.6% asset under management (AUM)

·        Flows in Europe were mixed with a net increase of 6.4t ($321mn, 0.78% AUM)

·        Asia funds lost 2t ($80mn, 3.0% AUM), with many of the Chinese gold-backed funds losing assets

Individual fund flows

·        In North America, SPDR® Gold Shares led inflows with +22.4t ($1.03bn, 3.2% of AUM), followed by iShares Gold Trust with +4.6t ($266mn, 3.1% of AUM).

·        European inflows were driven by Source Physical Gold +6t ($245mn, 5.5% of AUM) and ETFs Physical Gold +2.1t ($109mn, 1.87% of AUM).

Year-to-date trends

·        Global gold-backed ETFs collectively hold 2,295t and added 143.5t, equivalent to $5.3bn so far in 2017. This represents an increase of 5.5% of global AUM.

·        European funds continue to lead inflows accounting for nearly 79% of all inflows during the year.

European funds have increased their AUM by 12% on the year, while Asian funds have lost 16% of their assets.




August 30, 2017

#Gold All in-sustaining cost #AISC

The attached research paper "#Gold & Precious Minerals" by Scotiabank deals with AISC (all-in sustaining cost).  Generally speaking, for the senior and intermediate gold producers, a gold price of US$ 1'000 to US$ 1'100 per ounce is needed for FCF (free cash flow) breakeven.


From Scotiabank:


The industry has done well cutting costs to maintain their margins despite much lower gold prices. It's a well-known narrative that gold producers have cut spending heavily since the peaks of 2011-2012;  analysis confirms that in 2016, standardized AISC margins (%) for the group have returned to levels similar to 2012 (~25-30%) when the gold price was more than $400/oz higher. "Sustaining FCF" margins (i.e., after deducting cash taxes and interest) have rebounded even further with margins now ~18% vs. 17% in 2012. Since 2012, Nemont Mining has improved their standardized AISC position the most (from seventh to third), while Yamana Gold has slipped the most (from first to seventh).




August 20, 2017

#Debt & working capital in #Mining: @EY_MiningMetals: across mining sector, leverage is being brought back under control

#Miners have beeen reducing #debt levels this year as #commodities prices have increased

Gearing dropped to 34% for the top 50 miners, back to levels last seen in 2013, but still 2x that of 2011

EY - Debt in mining

EY - Debt in mining

August 7, 2017

#Gold & #silver Commitments of futures traders

Net Commitments of #gold futures traders show that large speculators #hedgefunds & money managers have increased their long positions. Net commercial traders increased their short positions (attachment 1). It looks like the market is in the building stage for something to come.


The Gold Barometers reveals that gold stocks are just about overbought and the physical gold is neutral and this already for some time as gold is in a trading range (attachment 2).


The KITCO Gold Survey indicates that Wall Street is 47% bullish and 41% bearish for this week. Main Street (Retail investors) are 48% bullish and 38% bearish for this week (attachment 3).


The XAU hourly gold chart shows that gold had a good week till Friday but lost all it gains on the U.S. unemployment figures. As per Friday, New York time 4 p.m. gold closed at US$ 1'258 per ounce for a loss of US$ 11 on the week (attachment 4).


The ARCA Gold Index (HUI) (attachment 5) shows that gold stocks tried to break through the 200-day moving average but failed. The weekly chart shows the same picture as HUI tried to break through the 40-week moving average on the upside but just couldn't make it (attachment 6). This is the 4th unsuccessful attempt this year to rally over this average.


Net Commitments of silver futures traders show the same picture as in gold. Large speculators are building their long positions while net commercial dealers are increasing their short positions. These positions are still small compared where they were over the last 12 months.


August 3, 2017

World @GoldCouncil H1 #Gold demand down 14%;slower #ETF inflows offset stronger consumer demand

World @GoldCouncil's detailed publication on gold demand and supply trends during the second quarter 2017, analysed by sector and by region.


ETF inflows slowed dramatically from last year's record pace
ETF holdings continued to grow: after adding 56t in Q2, H1 inflows reached 167.9t. European ETFs saw
the strongest H1 inflows: holdings in these funds reached a record 977.7t.

Bar and coin investment rebounded from very low levels
Q2 demand gained 13% from Q2 2016, while H1 demand rose 11%. A strong jump in Turkey was fuelled by
economic recovery, double-digit inflation and relative currency stability.

Jewellery demand strengthened from weak 2016, but fell short of the long-term average
India was the main contributor to the 8% gain in Q2, as it recovered from extremely low 2016 demand.

Technology demand registered its third consecutive quarter of growth
Growth in wireless charging and development of features that use LEDs boosted demand. New smartphone
handsets supported chip production.

Second Feature Article
Gold demand statistics
Latest statistics on gold global supply and demand. View second quarter 2017 gold statistics. [

July 27, 2017

#Cobalt, #EV's & #DRC: What will the bonanza mean for the #Congo? @FT

The move to ban petrol & diesel cars in France & UK will have a huge impact on the demand for #Cobalt. The #DRC as the main producer better find a way to clean up its act.

Clean electric cars are built on pollution in Congo: The country’s cobalt bonanza looks set to benefit only elites and mining companies

The MasterMetals Blog


July 11, 2017

#Gold: #HongKong #HKEX & #LME New contracts & trading systems

Two #HKEX platforms trade 24 hours a day; could turn HK into a global #gold trading hub

#Gold US$1,210/oz vs US$1,207/oz yesterday –

From SP Angel: Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing (HKEX) has said 3,000 of its new gold contracts traded on their launch day

London Metal Exchange traded a third of this volume on its system which also went live today.

The two HKEX platforms trade 24 hours a day and could turn HK into a global gold trading hub while allowing Chinese currency RMB deposits to trade in gold

The idea is to attract trading and investment away from the much larger OTC market, to increase market visibility and enable better regulation

The HKEX gold contract is available for trading in offshore renminbi 'CNH' and US dollars enabling the arbitrage between CNH futures and the other currency gold contracts

Physical delivery in Hong Kong is also available which should lead to price convergence and help prevent manipulation

#Gold #ETF holdings in June up from May: World @GoldCouncil

Weak currencies are #Gold's best friends! 

In the U.K., with the weaker Pound, UK's Source Physical Gold Trust added 12.2 tonnes of gold or 12% to 111.72 tonnes in June 2017.


·         At the end of June, total holdings in gold-backed ETFs and similar products stood at 2,313.1t (74.4moz), 22.2t higher from May. These holdings were valued at US$92.4bn, 1% lower compared to a month earlier.
·         North American and European Funds led the way: the former gained 12.8t to 1,227.1t while the latter added 10.5t to 977.7t. Asian funds lost 1.3t (-2%) to 61.9t and funds in the Other region increased marginally (+0.2t) to 46.4t. 
·         In North America, gains by iShares Gold Trust (+7.4t) outpaced that of SPDR Gold Shares (+5.0t). Their holdings at the end of June were 210.3t and 852.5t respectively.  
·         In Europe, it was UK's Source Physical Gold P-ETC that witnessed the largest inflow across the universe in the month. Its holdings increased a whopping 12.2t (+12%) to 111.7t.
·         In Asia, decline of the Chinese fund holdings slowed in June. After falling below the 20t mark during June, holdings of the Hua'an Yifu Gold ETF rebounded and ended the month at 20.0t.